Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 236.909906 288.373649 352.149618 438.387601 554.167886 7.075745e+02 9.321244e+02
2025-07-20 184.972665 247.133097 334.670451 472.040996 692.519997 1.053339e+03 1.740280e+03
2025-07-27 154.406997 219.824356 320.595267 497.239755 824.018990 1.465930e+03 3.041969e+03
2025-08-03 132.699420 198.072276 305.890404 512.268575 942.403531 1.938769e+03 5.099320e+03
2025-08-10 115.570672 178.944704 289.244029 516.083304 1039.566336 2.448915e+03 8.251332e+03
2025-08-17 100.798863 160.516016 268.884999 504.901270 1097.618529 2.919115e+03 1.260522e+04
2025-08-24 88.917833 144.908935 250.114638 490.712067 1141.652928 3.403572e+03 1.908098e+04
2025-08-31 79.252137 131.705080 233.231868 475.493401 1176.143837 3.909061e+03 2.894864e+04
2025-09-07 76.656245 131.192277 241.627915 523.175583 1430.026331 5.746201e+03 7.575285e+04
2025-09-14 71.063947 123.993061 234.439115 528.978597 1552.680542 7.220052e+03 1.653214e+05
2025-09-21 67.161388 119.579800 232.487444 548.581220 1744.532258 9.675139e+03 5.243432e+05
2025-09-28 62.224660 112.382631 222.887230 543.326493 1835.017091 1.172672e+04 1.646247e+06
2025-10-05 60.893091 112.779480 231.776616 599.618625 2270.717022 1.949421e+04 2.203733e+08
2025-10-12 59.108887 111.963346 237.663201 649.972405 2754.513599 3.287488e+04 NaN
2025-10-19 56.846346 109.754998 239.571578 688.198533 3237.545939 5.480320e+04 NaN
2025-10-26 54.184301 106.271760 237.424679 711.148809 3670.560603 8.860812e+04 NaN
2025-11-02 51.206769 101.681597 231.409716 716.989611 4000.375808 1.355524e+05 NaN
2025-11-09 47.830480 95.769858 220.702356 699.878513 4125.540301 1.826299e+05 NaN
2025-11-16 44.665861 90.054439 209.719162 678.238561 4192.477117 2.391462e+05 NaN
2025-11-23 41.774106 84.728805 199.120235 655.119992 4224.749052 3.084477e+05 NaN
2025-11-30 41.602469 86.078509 208.585868 727.867572 5459.117665 1.201382e+06 NaN
2025-12-07 39.852643 83.273384 204.900631 736.783192 5990.733853 2.976979e+06 NaN
2025-12-14 38.682882 81.829225 205.268720 766.997371 6943.321361 1.677622e+07 NaN